Forecast: ADAUSDT
A ready idea: where the entry is, where the stop is, where the target is and why we think so. ← all ideas
LONG
ADAUSDT · 4h · waiting for price to return to the entry zone
Idea qualityMedium6 for · 1 against
Entry zone0.2426 – 0.2438
Stop0.2415
Target (2R)0.2483
To the entry zone9.60%
What to do
- Do not enter immediately. Wait for price to come back down into the zone 0.2426–0.2438 (now 0.2697, 9.60% to the zone).
- Enter the long from 0.2438, stop 0.2415 (beyond the head), target 0.2483: that is 2R, profit twice the risk.
- If price closes below 0.2415 before entry, the idea is cancelled.
Why exactly here (6)
- Liquidity taken: Price took out the left shoulder low by 0.0005000 and reversed
- Equal lows: Liquidity had piled up nearby (equal levels) and was taken
- Change of character (CHoCH): The break reversed the previous market structure
- QML not touched yet: Price has not returned to the level since the break
- 1d: structure is bullish: The higher timeframe points the same way
- Delta confirms the break: Aggressive buyers: 53% of the break candle volume
What is against (1)
- CVD confirmed the head: Seller pressure at the head did not weaken
Not known yet
- Absorption at QML: Waiting for a return to QML
- Footprint (from trades): QML not touched yet
What history says
On history, 4h long: 12 of 68 completed trades reached the 2R target (18%). Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.
Quality is calculated like this: confirmations minus 2 × contradictions (≥5 strong, 2–4 medium, otherwise weak). This is not a probability of profit: in the History section, idea quality did not predict the result.
This forecast is recorded in the journal with frozen levels, and the result will be counted in the statistics.
Open the detailed breakdownStopTarget 2REntry zone (QML)Hover or tap the markers · time in UTC