Forecast: ETHUSDT
A ready idea: where the entry is, where the stop is, where the target is and why we think so. ← all ideas
SHORT
ETHUSDT · 1h · waiting for price to return to the entry zone
Idea qualityStrong7 for · 1 against
Entry zone2,717.32 – 2,722.43
Stop2,726.29
Target (2R)2,699.38
To the entry zone1.29%
What to do
- Do not enter immediately. Wait for price to come back up into the zone 2,717.3–2,722.4 (now 2,682.8, 1.29% to the zone).
- Enter the short from 2,717.3, stop 2,726.3 (beyond the head), target 2,699.4: that is 2R, profit twice the risk.
- If price closes above 2,726.3 before entry, the idea is cancelled.
Why exactly here (7)
- Liquidity taken: Price took out the left shoulder high by 2.570 and reversed
- Equal highs: Liquidity had piled up nearby (equal levels) and was taken
- Change of character (CHoCH): The break reversed the previous market structure
- QML not touched yet: Price has not returned to the level since the break
- Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zone: Partially filled bearish FVG, overlap 100%
- Delta confirms the break: Aggressive sellers: 58% of the break candle volume
- CVD divergence at the head: Buyers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder
What is against (1)
- 4h: structure is bullish: The higher timeframe points the other way
Not known yet
- Absorption at QML: Waiting for a return to QML
- Footprint (from trades): QML not touched yet
What history says
On history, 1h short: 32 of 123 completed trades reached the 2R target (26%). Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.
Quality is calculated like this: confirmations minus 2 × contradictions (≥5 strong, 2–4 medium, otherwise weak). This is not a probability of profit: in the History section, idea quality did not predict the result.
This forecast is recorded in the journal with frozen levels, and the result will be counted in the statistics.
Open the detailed breakdownStopTarget 2REntry zone (QML)Hover or tap the markers · time in UTC