Forecast: SOXLUSDT
A ready idea: where the entry is, where the stop is, where the target is and why we think so. ← all ideas
SHORT
SOXLUSDT · 4h · price is in the entry zone, the idea is in play
Idea qualityWeak5 for · 2 against
Entry zone164.350 – 165.280
Stop170.150
Target (2R)152.749
To the entry zone0.84%
What to do
- Price has already entered the zone 164.350–165.280.
- If you are in the short: stop 170.150, target 152.749.
- The idea breaks if price closes above 170.150.
Why exactly here (5)
- Liquidity taken: Price took out the left shoulder high by 4.540 and reversed
- Equal highs: Liquidity had piled up nearby (equal levels) and was taken
- Change of character (CHoCH): The break reversed the previous market structure
- Delta confirms the break: Aggressive sellers: 54% of the break candle volume
- CVD divergence at the head: Buyers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder
What is against (2)
- 1d: structure is bullish: The higher timeframe points the other way
- No absorption at QML: Touch candle volume 0.8× the average; aggressive buyers: yes; bounce (close in the lower part of the candle): no
Not known yet
- Footprint (from trades): No trade data for the touch candle (the footprint is collected only live)
What history says
On history, 4h short: 18 of 83 completed trades reached the 2R target (22%). Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.
Quality is calculated like this: confirmations minus 2 × contradictions (≥5 strong, 2–4 medium, otherwise weak). This is not a probability of profit: in the History section, idea quality did not predict the result.
This forecast is recorded in the journal with frozen levels, and the result will be counted in the statistics.
Open the detailed breakdownStopTarget 2REntry zone (QML)Hover or tap the markers · time in UTC