ADAUSDT 4h · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 16:00 UTC · forecast for ADAUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone0.2426 – 0.2438

Stop (beyond the head)0.2415

Target (2R)0.2483

Structure break level0.2467 · 1.3R

Next swing further out0.2473

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

4h, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 12 of 68 completed returns (18%), on average -0.47R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder0.2426

Head0.2421

Structural level0.2467

Sweep size0.0005000 (0.07 ATR)

Break strength0.001000 (0.14 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break2

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 53% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1dBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

03.10 20:00Liquidity formed: local low 0.2426 (left shoulder)
04.10 04:00Structural high 0.2467 confirmed
04.10 08:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
04.10 16:00Head 0.2421 confirmed
04.10 16:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 0.2467. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 0.2426 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 0.2421, which is 0.0005000 (0.07 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 0.2467 (close 0.2477). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (0.2426–0.2438) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1d: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (53% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

1d: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown