ADAUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for ADAUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockTap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone0.2731 – 0.2733

Stop (beyond the head)0.2735

Target (2R)0.2723

Structure break level0.2715 · 4.0R

Next swing further out0.2709

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 22 of 123 completed returns (18%), on average -0.46R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

7Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder0.2733

Head0.2734

Structural level0.2715

Sweep size0.0001000 (0.08 ATR)

Break strength0.0007000 (0.59 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head14

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

Bearish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML50%

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 57% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Buyer pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBearish structure

1hBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 17:05Liquidity formed: local high 0.2733 (left shoulder)
06.10 17:30Structural low 0.2715 confirmed
06.10 18:05Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 18:15Head 0.2734 confirmed
06.10 18:20CHoCH: close below the structural low 0.2715. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 0.2733 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 0.2734, which is 0.0001000 (0.08 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 0.2715 (close 0.2708). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (0.2731–0.2733) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bearish order block overlaps QML by 50%: big players already built positions in this zone.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bearish (supports the idea).

Structure on 1h: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (57% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bearish order block at QMLConfirmation

15m: structure is bearishConfirmation

1h: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown