Computed in your browser from 2,611 real trading days of the published NQ noise-band rule.
This is history, not a forecast, and not advice. Many prop firms limit or forbid automated or copied trading, rules change, and daily losses inside a day are not visible here. Check the firm's current rules before paying for a challenge.
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How to read it
Every possible start day from 2015 to 2025 is one attempt; the numbers are shares of those attempts. Neighbouring attempts overlap, so they are not independent samples.
Position size is chosen so that the stop costs the risk per trade; the percentages are of the starting balance, as prop firms count them.
A higher risk reaches the target faster but fails more often. Compare 0.5%, 0.75% and 1% and look at both columns.
Look at the split by period: the rule passed far more often in 2020–2025 (strong, volatile trends) than in 2015–2019. The overall figure hides this; do not assume the better period will repeat.
The rule is a day-trading rule on Nasdaq futures. It is not a forex strategy: our own tests of forex ideas found no edge after costs.
Prop firm challenge pass chance: a calculator based on a tested Nasdaq futures rule
A prop firm challenge asks a trader to reach a profit target, usually eight to ten percent, without breaking a maximum loss and a daily loss limit. Whether a strategy can do that depends less on its average return than on the path it takes: how deep the dips are and how fast the gains arrive. This calculator replays that path. It takes the daily results of the published Nasdaq futures noise-band rule over 2,611 real trading days (2015 to 2025), starts a challenge on every possible day, and counts how many attempts reached the target, how many hit a loss limit and how many did neither within the allowed days.
You set the target, the maximum loss, the daily loss limit, the risk per trade and the number of days, and you can switch to a trailing maximum loss that follows the highest balance. Position size is assumed to be chosen so that the stop costs exactly the chosen risk, and every percentage is measured against the starting balance, as prop firms do. The table also splits the history into 2015-2019 and 2020-2025, so you can see whether the answer depends on the period.
What the result does and does not tell you
The numbers are an honest replay of the past, not a forecast. Attempts that start on neighbouring days overlap, only daily results are available so losses inside a day are not visible, and the rule itself was tested on one market and one period. Higher risk reaches the target sooner but fails more often, so compare several risk levels instead of chasing the highest pass rate.
Prop firms also differ in rules and some restrict automated or copied trading, so read the current terms before paying. This page does not recommend any firm and does not promise a pass. Our own tests of simple forex rules found no edge after costs, which is why the calculator is based on a Nasdaq futures rule and says so.
Questions and answers
How is the pass chance calculated?
We replay the daily results of the rule from every possible start day and count attempts that reach the target before breaking a loss limit within the chosen number of days.
Is a high pass chance a guarantee?
No. It describes history on one market. Future results, other markets and real execution can be worse.
Can I use it for forex challenges?
The rule is for Nasdaq futures. We found no edge for the forex ideas we tested, so do not read this as a forex result.
Why does a higher risk fail more often?
Bigger positions make both the gains and the dips larger, so the loss limits are hit sooner.
