ETHUSDT 4h · Quasimodo · short

PRICE IN THE QML ZONEOpen · updated 06.10 16:00 UTC · forecast for ETHUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone2,695.15 – 2,721.39

Stop (beyond the head)2,783.04

Target (2R)2,519.38

Structure break level2,671.1 · 0.3R

Next swing further out2,666

StatusIn progress: QML touched, no target or stop yet

History of this pattern on Binance data

4h, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 18 of 83 completed returns (22%), on average -0.35R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortPRICE IN THE QML ZONE

5Confirmations

3Against

1Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML already touchedtouched

Left shoulder2,721.39

Head2,779

Structural level2,671.1

Sweep size57.610 (1.57 ATR)

Break strength4.410 (0.12 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head7

Candles head → break2

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateFilled

Overlap with QML71%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 55% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Buyer pressure at the head did not weaken

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Touch candle volume 0.3× the average; aggressive buyers: yes; bounce (close in the lower part of the candle): no

Footprint (from trades)No data

No trade data for the touch candle (the footprint is collected only live)

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1dBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

01.10 16:00Liquidity formed: local high 2,721.4 (left shoulder)
01.10 20:00Structural low 2,671.1 confirmed
02.10 04:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
02.10 20:00Head 2,779 confirmed
02.10 20:00CHoCH: close below the structural low 2671.1. Quasimodo confirmed
03.10 00:00Price is approaching QML
04.10 04:00Price entered the QML zone

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 2,721.4 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 2,779, which is 57.610 (1.57 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 2,671.1 (close 2,666.7). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (2,695.2–2,721.4) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Filled bearish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 71%.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1d: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (55% of volume).

There was no absorption on the candle that returned to QML.

Now: price entered the QML zone.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

1d: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Footprint (from trades)Unknown