ETHUSDT 1d · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 00:00 UTC · forecast for ETHUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone1,670.56 – 1,710.18

Stop (beyond the head)1,502.52

Target (2R)2,125.51

Structure break level1,779 · 0.3R

Next swing further out1,838

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1d, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 6 of 32 completed returns (19%), on average -0.44R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

7Confirmations

0Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1,670.56

Head1,510.87

Structural level1,779

Sweep size159.690 (1.81 ATR)

Break strength0.9400 (0.01 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head8

Candles head → break8

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateUntouched

Overlap with QML58%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 51% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Sellers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

For the 1d there is no higher timeframe—

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

21.06 00:00Liquidity formed: local low 1,670.6 (left shoulder)
25.06 00:00Structural high 1,779 confirmed
26.06 00:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
29.06 00:00Head 1,510.9 confirmed
05.07 00:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 1779.0. Quasimodo confirmed
06.07 00:00Price is approaching QML

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 1,670.6 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1,510.9, which is 159.7 (1.81 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 1,779 (close 1,779.9). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1,670.6–1,710.2) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Untouched bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 58%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (51% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown