ADAUSDT 4h · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 16:00 UTC · forecast for ADAUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockTap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone0.2209 – 0.2217

Stop (beyond the head)0.2175

Target (2R)0.2302

Structure break level0.2315 · 2.3R

Next swing further out0.2321

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

4h, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 12 of 68 completed returns (18%), on average -0.47R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder0.2209

Head0.2181

Structural level0.2315

Sweep size0.002800 (0.45 ATR)

Break strength0.0004000 (0.06 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break4

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows—

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML100%

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 51% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1dBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

19.09 20:00Liquidity formed: local low 0.2209 (left shoulder)
20.09 04:00Structural high 0.2315 confirmed
20.09 08:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
20.09 20:00Head 0.2181 confirmed
21.09 04:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 0.2315. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 0.2209 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 0.2181, which is 0.002800 (0.45 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 0.2315 (close 0.2319). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (0.2209–0.2217) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bullish order block overlaps QML by 100%: big players already built positions in this zone.

Structure on 1d: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (51% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bullish order block at QMLConfirmation

1d: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown