Are Prediction Markets Accurate? What the Research Shows
The Iowa market beat 964 polls 74% of the time and missed by about 1.5 points. What older research says about prediction prices, and where they fail.
#longshot-bias
1 articles
1 articles
The Iowa market beat 964 polls 74% of the time and missed by about 1.5 points. What older research says about prediction prices, and where they fail.