NEARUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · long

PLAYED OUTClosed · updated 06.10 18:40 UTC · forecast for NEARUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone5.025 – 5.032

Stop (beyond the head)5.018

Target (2R)5.060

Structure break level5.054 · 1.6R

Next swing further out5.058

StatusTarget 2R reached

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 25 of 108 completed returns (23%), on average -0.31R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longPLAYED OUT

5Confirmations

5Against

0Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML already touchedtouched

Left shoulder5.025

Head5.020

Structural level5.054

Sweep size0.005000 (0.21 ATR)

Break strength0.002000 (0.09 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateFilled

Overlap with QML57%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 64% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Touch candle volume 0.7× the average; aggressive sellers: no; bounce (close in the upper part of the candle): no

Footprint: no absorption in the QML zoneAgainst

12% of the candle volume is aggressive selling inside the zone; imbalance stack: none

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBearish structure ⚠

1hBearish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 17:30Liquidity formed: local low 5.025 (left shoulder)
06.10 17:40Structural high 5.054 confirmed
06.10 17:50Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 18:00Head 5.020 confirmed
06.10 18:05CHoCH: close above the structural high 5.054. Quasimodo confirmed
06.10 18:10Price is approaching QML
06.10 18:20Price entered the QML zone
06.10 18:40Idea played out: After touching QML price closed above the structural level 5.054

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 5.025 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 5.020, which is 0.005000 (0.21 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 5.054 (close 5.056). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (5.025–5.032) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Filled bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 57%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bearish (against this idea).

Structure on 1h: bearish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (64% of volume).

There was no absorption on the candle that returned to QML.

Result: the pattern played out and is closed for tracking.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

15m: structure is bearishAgainst

1h: structure is bearishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Footprint: no absorption in the QML zoneAgainst