FILUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:45 UTC · forecast for FILUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone1.132 – 1.134

Stop (beyond the head)1.126

Target (2R)1.151

Structure break level1.146 · 1.4R

Next swing further out1.159

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 25 of 113 completed returns (22%), on average -0.34R.

All markets: 21% of 1090, on average -0.38R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

7Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1.132

Head1.127

Structural level1.146

Sweep size0.004900 (0.57 ATR)

Break strength0.001500 (0.17 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break2

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateUntouched

Overlap with QML64%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 55% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBullish structure

1hBearish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

05.10 19:40Liquidity formed: local low 1.132 (left shoulder)
05.10 19:45Structural high 1.146 confirmed
05.10 19:50Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
05.10 20:05Head 1.127 confirmed
05.10 20:05CHoCH: close above the structural high 1.146. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 1.132 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1.127, which is 0.004900 (0.57 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 1.146 (close 1.147). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1.132–1.134) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Untouched bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 64%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bullish (supports the idea).

Structure on 1h: bearish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (55% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

15m: structure is bullishConfirmation

1h: structure is bearishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown