ZECUSDT 1h · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:00 UTC · forecast for ZECUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone1,664.41 – 1,667.54

Stop (beyond the head)1,684.21

Target (2R)1,624.81

Structure break level1,646 · 0.9R

Next swing further out1,631.1

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1h, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 29 of 113 completed returns (26%), on average -0.23R.

All markets: 21% of 1088, on average -0.38R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

5Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1,667.54

Head1,681.99

Structural level1,646

Sweep size14.450 (0.67 ATR)

Break strength39.620 (1.84 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break2

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs—

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 58% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Buyers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

4hBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

27.09 10:00Liquidity formed: local high 1,667.5 (left shoulder)
27.09 12:00Structural low 1,646 confirmed
27.09 13:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
27.09 15:00Head 1,682 confirmed
27.09 15:00CHoCH: close below the structural low 1646.0. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 1,667.5 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1,682, which is 14.450 (0.67 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 1,646 (close 1,606.4). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1,664.4–1,667.5) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Structure on 4h: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (58% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

4h: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown