UNIUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 20:05 UTC · forecast for UNIUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone8.975 – 8.979

Stop (beyond the head)9.016

Target (2R)8.893

Structure break level8.949 · 0.6R

Next swing further out8.946

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 23 of 128 completed returns (18%), on average -0.46R.

All markets: 21% of 1090, on average -0.38R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

8Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder8.979

Head9.013

Structural level8.949

Sweep size0.03400 (1.40 ATR)

Break strength0.01900 (0.78 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head8

Candles head → break1

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StatePartially filled

Overlap with QML100%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 70% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Buyer pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBearish structure

1hBearish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 02:15Liquidity formed: local high 8.979 (left shoulder)
06.10 02:20Structural low 8.949 confirmed
06.10 02:25Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 02:45Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 02:55Head 9.013 confirmed
06.10 02:55CHoCH: close below the structural low 8.949. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 8.979 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 9.013, which is 0.03400 (1.40 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 8.949 (close 8.930). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (8.975–8.979) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Partially filled bearish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 100%.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bearish (supports the idea).

Structure on 1h: bearish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (70% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

15m: structure is bearishConfirmation

1h: structure is bearishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown