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ORCAUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · short

CANCELLEDClosed · updated 04.10 02:45 UTC · forecast for ORCAUSDT
QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Timeline

  • Liquidity formed: local high 1.803 (left shoulder)
  • Structural low 1.794 confirmed
  • Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
  • Head 1.808 confirmed
  • CHoCH: close below the structural low 1.794. Quasimodo confirmed
  • Price entered the QML zone
  • Idea cancelled: Close above the head (1.808)

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 1.803 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1.808, which is 0.005000 (0.57 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 1.794 (close 1.792). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1.797–1.803) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1h: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle the aggressive flow went against the break (50% of volume).

There was no absorption on the candle that returned to QML.

Result: the idea was cancelled.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation
Equal highsConfirmation
Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation
Opposite order block at QMLAgainst
1h: structure is bullishAgainst
Delta against the breakAgainst
CVD confirmed the headAgainst
No absorption at QMLAgainst
Footprint (from trades)Unknown

ORCAUSDT 15m: how to read this setup page

This page describes one Quasimodo setup on ORCAUSDT (15m) from Binance USD-M futures. The chart shows the points of the pattern (left shoulder, structural swing, head, structure break), the QML zone and the plan lines: entry, stop beyond the head and a 2R target. Optional panels show volume delta and cumulative volume delta (CVD) and, where tick data was collected, a footprint view of buy and sell volume by price.

Timeline and context

The timeline lists every state change with the time it became known: when the head swept liquidity, when the structure broke, when price approached and touched the QML zone, and how the setup ended. The context block shows the higher-timeframe bias and nearby order blocks and fair value gaps found by the open-source engines. Everything is calculated from data that was known at that moment; nothing is redrawn later.

What the plan means

Entry is the edge of the QML zone, the stop sits beyond the head plus 0.1 ATR, and the target is exactly twice the risk (2R). The break level and the next swing are shown for reference. This is a description of the structure and a possible scenario, not a recommendation. Over a year of history the pattern was not profitable after fees on its own, so we present it as context for your own decision.

Statistics shown next to the setup

Where enough history exists, the page shows how setups of the same timeframe and direction played out: how often the 2R target was reached before the stop and the average result in R. These are base rates from our own history with the sample size, not a forecast for this particular setup. If the sample is small, the numbers are unreliable.

Questions and answers

What does the setup ID mean?

It encodes the coin, timeframe, pattern direction and the times of the left shoulder and the structural swing, so a setup has a stable address.

Why is the stop beyond the head?

If price moves beyond the head, the structure that defined the setup is broken and the idea is invalid.

What is the footprint button?

It splits candles into price levels with sell and buy volume, imbalances, the point of control and delta. It is available only for periods when tick data was collected.

Can I see what the setup looked like earlier?

Yes: an as-of view shows the setup exactly as it was known at a chosen moment, which is a way to check that nothing was redrawn.