BNBUSDT 4h · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 16:00 UTC · forecast for BNBUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone753.720 – 759.030

Stop (beyond the head)749.809

Target (2R)777.472

Structure break level769.740 · 1.2R

Next swing further out770.750

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

4h, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 12 of 75 completed returns (16%), on average -0.52R.

All markets: 21% of 1088, on average -0.38R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

7Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder753.720

Head750.750

Structural level769.740

Sweep size2.970 (0.32 ATR)

Break strength0.8600 (0.09 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head4

Candles head → break4

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateFilled

Overlap with QML57%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 54% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1dBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

29.09 12:00Liquidity formed: local low 753.7 (left shoulder)
29.09 16:00Structural high 769.7 confirmed
29.09 20:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
30.09 04:00Head 750.8 confirmed
30.09 12:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 769.7. Quasimodo confirmed
30.09 20:00Price is approaching QML
02.10 20:00Price is approaching QML

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 753.7 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 750.8, which is 2.970 (0.32 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 769.7 (close 770.6). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (753.7–759) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Filled bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 57%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1d: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (54% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

1d: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown