ZECUSDT 1h · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:00 UTC · forecast for ZECUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone1,438.11 – 1,446.97

Stop (beyond the head)1,452.21

Target (2R)1,409.91

Structure break level1,405.32 · 2.3R

Next swing further out1,400.01

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1h, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 28 of 109 completed returns (26%), on average -0.23R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1,446.97

Head1,449.77

Structural level1,405.32

Sweep size2.800 (0.10 ATR)

Break strength4.150 (0.15 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head7

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 56% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Buyers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

4hBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

01.10 02:00Liquidity formed: local high 1,447 (left shoulder)
01.10 05:00Structural low 1,405.3 confirmed
01.10 07:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
01.10 09:00Head 1,449.8 confirmed
01.10 10:00CHoCH: close below the structural low 1405.3. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 1,447 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1,449.8, which is 2.800 (0.10 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 1,405.3 (close 1,401.2). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1,438.1–1,447) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 4h: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (56% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

4h: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown