XAUUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 18:45 UTC · forecast for XAUUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockTap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone4,156.21 – 4,157.01

Stop (beyond the head)4,147.34

Target (2R)4,176.35

Structure break level4,162.4 · 0.6R

Next swing further out4,162.56

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 25 of 108 completed returns (23%), on average -0.31R.

All markets: 21% of 1050, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

8Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder4,156.21

Head4,147.81

Structural level4,162.4

Sweep size8.400 (1.95 ATR)

Break strength2.630 (0.61 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break6

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML73%

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 55% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Sellers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBearish structure ⚠

1hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 14:15Liquidity formed: local low 4,156.2 (left shoulder)
06.10 14:20Structural high 4,162.4 confirmed
06.10 14:25Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 14:45Head 4,147.8 confirmed
06.10 15:05CHoCH: close above the structural high 4162.4. Quasimodo confirmed
06.10 16:50Price is approaching QML

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 4,156.2 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 4,147.8, which is 8.400 (1.95 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 4,162.4 (close 4,165). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (4,156.2–4,157) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bullish order block overlaps QML by 73%: big players already built positions in this zone.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bearish (against this idea).

Structure on 1h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (55% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bullish order block at QMLConfirmation

15m: structure is bearishAgainst

1h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown