XAUUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for XAUUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone4,124.13 – 4,125.46

Stop (beyond the head)4,117.51

Target (2R)4,141.37

Structure break level4,128.83 · 0.4R

Next swing further out4,129.42

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 25 of 108 completed returns (23%), on average -0.31R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

8Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder4,124.13

Head4,117.86

Structural level4,128.83

Sweep size6.270 (1.93 ATR)

Break strength3.070 (0.95 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateUntouched

Overlap with QML86%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 64% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBullish structure

1hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 05:45Liquidity formed: local low 4,124.1 (left shoulder)
06.10 05:50Structural high 4,128.8 confirmed
06.10 06:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 06:15Head 4,117.9 confirmed
06.10 06:20CHoCH: close above the structural high 4128.8. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 4,124.1 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 4,117.9, which is 6.270 (1.93 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 4,128.8 (close 4,131.9). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (4,124.1–4,125.5) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Untouched bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 86%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bullish (supports the idea).

Structure on 1h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (64% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

15m: structure is bullishConfirmation

1h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown