XAUUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for XAUUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockImbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone4,124.34 – 4,125.67

Stop (beyond the head)4,117.2

Target (2R)4,142.6

Structure break level4,129.42 · 0.4R

Next swing further out4,131.47

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

15m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 43 of 196 completed returns (22%), on average -0.34R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

9Confirmations

0Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder4,124.34

Head4,117.86

Structural level4,129.42

Sweep size6.480 (1.02 ATR)

Break strength8.180 (1.28 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break1

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateAlready touched

Touches1

Overlap with QML100%

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateFilled

Overlap with QML100%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 58% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Sellers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 05:30Liquidity formed: local low 4,124.3 (left shoulder)
06.10 06:00Structural high 4,129.4 confirmed
06.10 06:15Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 06:45Head 4,117.9 confirmed
06.10 06:45CHoCH: close above the structural high 4129.4. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 4,124.3 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 4,117.9, which is 6.480 (1.02 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 4,129.4 (close 4,137.6). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (4,124.3–4,125.7) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

An already touched bullish order block overlaps QML by 100%: big players already built positions in this zone.

Filled bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 100%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (58% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Order block (already touched) at QMLConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

1h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown