XAGUSDT 1d · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 00:00 UTC · forecast for XAGUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone56.710 – 57.340

Stop (beyond the head)56.489

Target (2R)59.043

Structure break level59.410 · 2.4R

Next swing further out60.160

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1d, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 6 of 32 completed returns (19%), on average -0.44R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

5Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder56.710

Head56.680

Structural level59.410

Sweep size0.03000 (0.02 ATR)

Break strength0.1300 (0.07 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break1

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 51% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

For the 1d there is no higher timeframe—

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

31.07 00:00Liquidity formed: local low 56.710 (left shoulder)
02.08 00:00Structural high 59.410 confirmed
04.08 00:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.08 00:00Head 56.680 confirmed
06.08 00:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 59.410. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 56.710 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 56.680, which is 0.03000 (0.02 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 59.410 (close 59.540). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (56.710–57.340) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (51% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown