SUIUSDT 1h · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:00 UTC · forecast for SUIUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone1.202 – 1.206

Stop (beyond the head)1.211

Target (2R)1.185

Structure break level1.183 · 2.2R

Next swing further out1.181

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1h, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 28 of 109 completed returns (26%), on average -0.23R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

5Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1.206

Head1.209

Structural level1.183

Sweep size0.003200 (0.22 ATR)

Break strength0.001700 (0.12 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 58% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Buyer pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

4hBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 11:00Liquidity formed: local high 1.206 (left shoulder)
06.10 12:00Structural low 1.183 confirmed
06.10 14:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 16:00Head 1.209 confirmed
06.10 17:00CHoCH: close below the structural low 1.183. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 1.206 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1.209, which is 0.003200 (0.22 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 1.183 (close 1.182). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1.202–1.206) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 4h: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (58% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

4h: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown