SPCXUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · long

PRICE IN THE QML ZONEOpen · updated 06.10 18:45 UTC · forecast for SPCXUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone171.810 – 171.950

Stop (beyond the head)171.036

Target (2R)173.777

Structure break level172.400 · 0.5R

Next swing further out172.530

StatusIn progress: QML touched, no target or stop yet

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 25 of 108 completed returns (23%), on average -0.31R.

All markets: 21% of 1050, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longPRICE IN THE QML ZONE

6Confirmations

3Against

1Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML already touchedtouched

Left shoulder171.810

Head171.090

Structural level172.400

Sweep size0.7200 (2.19 ATR)

Break strength1.730 (5.25 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head8

Candles head → break4

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateFilled

Overlap with QML100%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 58% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Touch candle volume 1.6× the average; aggressive sellers: yes; bounce (close in the upper part of the candle): no

Footprint (from trades)No data

No trade data for the touch candle (the footprint is collected only live)

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBearish structure ⚠

1hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 12:45Liquidity formed: local low 171.8 (left shoulder)
06.10 13:00Structural high 172.4 confirmed
06.10 13:05Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 13:25Head 171.1 confirmed
06.10 13:35CHoCH: close above the structural high 172.4. Quasimodo confirmed
06.10 18:30Price is approaching QML
06.10 18:35Price entered the QML zone

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 171.8 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 171.1, which is 0.7200 (2.19 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 172.4 (close 174.1). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (171.8–172) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Filled bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 100%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bearish (against this idea).

Structure on 1h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (58% of volume).

There was no absorption on the candle that returned to QML.

Now: price entered the QML zone.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

15m: structure is bearishAgainst

1h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Footprint (from trades)Unknown