SPCXUSDT 1h · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:00 UTC · forecast for SPCXUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone159.920 – 160.100

Stop (beyond the head)158.189

Target (2R)163.922

Structure break level160.790 · 0.4R

Next swing further out160.960

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1h, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 27 of 95 completed returns (28%), on average -0.15R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder159.920

Head158.270

Structural level160.790

Sweep size1.650 (5.79 ATR)

Break strength3.720 (13.06 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head7

Candles head → break1

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows—

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateUntouched

Overlap with QML100%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 57% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

4hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

05.10 08:00Liquidity formed: local low 159.9 (left shoulder)
05.10 11:00Structural high 160.8 confirmed
05.10 12:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
05.10 15:00Head 158.3 confirmed
05.10 15:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 160.8. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 159.9 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 158.3, which is 1.650 (5.79 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 160.8 (close 164.5). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (159.9–160.1) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Untouched bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 100%.

Structure on 4h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (57% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

4h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown