SNDKUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for SNDKUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone1,699.05 – 1,700.24

Stop (beyond the head)1,717.53

Target (2R)1,662.09

Structure break level1,694.03 · 0.3R

Next swing further out1,693.62

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

15m, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 31 of 202 completed returns (15%), on average -0.54R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1,700.24

Head1,716.68

Structural level1,694.03

Sweep size16.440 (4.65 ATR)

Break strength1.970 (0.56 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break6

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 53% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Buyer pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1hBearish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 11:15Liquidity formed: local high 1,700.2 (left shoulder)
06.10 11:45Structural low 1,694 confirmed
06.10 12:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 12:45Head 1,716.7 confirmed
06.10 13:45CHoCH: close below the structural low 1694.0. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 1,700.2 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1,716.7, which is 16.440 (4.65 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 1,694 (close 1,692.1). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1,699.1–1,700.2) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1h: bearish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (53% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

1h: structure is bearishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown