RLCUSDT 1h · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:00 UTC · forecast for RLCUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockImbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone0.3240 – 0.3268

Stop (beyond the head)0.3206

Target (2R)0.3392

Structure break level0.3353 · 1.4R

Next swing further out0.3405

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1h, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 27 of 95 completed returns (28%), on average -0.15R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

7Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder0.3240

Head0.3211

Structural level0.3353

Sweep size0.002900 (0.54 ATR)

Break strength0.0004000 (0.08 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head7

Candles head → break6

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML11%

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StatePartially filled

Overlap with QML14%

Order flow

Delta against the breakAgainst

Aggressive buyers: 39% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

4hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

24.09 05:00Liquidity formed: local low 0.3240 (left shoulder)
24.09 08:00Structural high 0.3353 confirmed
24.09 10:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
24.09 12:00Head 0.3211 confirmed
24.09 16:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 0.3353. Quasimodo confirmed
25.09 03:00Price is approaching QML

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 0.3240 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 0.3211, which is 0.002900 (0.54 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 0.3353 (close 0.3357). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (0.3240–0.3268) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bullish order block overlaps QML by 11%: big players already built positions in this zone.

Partially filled bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 14%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 4h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle the aggressive flow went against the break (39% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bullish order block at QMLConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

4h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta against the breakAgainst

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown