ORCAUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for ORCAUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone2.541 – 2.564

Stop (beyond the head)2.483

Target (2R)2.727

Structure break level2.589 · 0.3R

Next swing further out2.603

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 25 of 108 completed returns (23%), on average -0.31R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

8Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder2.541

Head2.487

Structural level2.589

Sweep size0.05400 (1.42 ATR)

Break strength0.05600 (1.47 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break4

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StatePartially filled

Overlap with QML100%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 52% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBullish structure

1hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 14:20Liquidity formed: local low 2.541 (left shoulder)
06.10 14:30Structural high 2.589 confirmed
06.10 14:35Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 14:45Head 2.487 confirmed
06.10 14:55CHoCH: close above the structural high 2.589. Quasimodo confirmed
06.10 16:55Price is approaching QML

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 2.541 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 2.487, which is 0.05400 (1.42 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 2.589 (close 2.645). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (2.541–2.564) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Partially filled bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 100%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bullish (supports the idea).

Structure on 1h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (52% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

15m: structure is bullishConfirmation

1h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown