ORCAUSDT 1d · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 00:00 UTC · forecast for ORCAUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone1.342 – 1.402

Stop (beyond the head)1.270

Target (2R)1.667

Structure break level1.497 · 0.7R

Next swing further out1.500

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1d, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 6 of 32 completed returns (19%), on average -0.44R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

5Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1.342

Head1.279

Structural level1.497

Sweep size0.06300 (0.60 ATR)

Break strength0.01700 (0.16 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break5

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateFilled

Overlap with QML100%

Order flow

Delta against the breakAgainst

Aggressive buyers: 49% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

For the 1d there is no higher timeframe—

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

13.09 00:00Liquidity formed: local low 1.342 (left shoulder)
15.09 00:00Structural high 1.497 confirmed
16.09 00:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
19.09 00:00Head 1.279 confirmed
22.09 00:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 1.497. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 1.342 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1.279, which is 0.06300 (0.60 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 1.497 (close 1.514). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1.342–1.402) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Filled bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 100%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

On the break candle the aggressive flow went against the break (49% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

Delta against the breakAgainst

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown