NVDAUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for NVDAUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockImbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone236.720 – 237.150

Stop (beyond the head)236.218

Target (2R)239.014

Structure break level237.600 · 0.5R

Next swing further out237.990

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

15m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 43 of 196 completed returns (22%), on average -0.34R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder236.720

Head236.270

Structural level237.600

Sweep size0.4500 (0.77 ATR)

Break strength0.03000 (0.05 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head9

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows—

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML63%

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateUntouched

Overlap with QML70%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 53% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1hBearish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

05.10 15:00Liquidity formed: local low 236.7 (left shoulder)
05.10 15:45Structural high 237.6 confirmed
05.10 16:30Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
05.10 17:15Head 236.3 confirmed
05.10 17:30CHoCH: close above the structural high 237.6. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 236.7 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 236.3, which is 0.4500 (0.77 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 237.6 (close 237.6). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (236.7–237.2) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bullish order block overlaps QML by 63%: big players already built positions in this zone.

Untouched bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 70%.

Structure on 1h: bearish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (53% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bullish order block at QMLConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

1h: structure is bearishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown