NVDAUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for NVDAUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockTap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone235.110 – 235.340

Stop (beyond the head)235.050

Target (2R)235.920

Structure break level235.840 · 1.7R

Next swing further out235.880

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

15m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 43 of 196 completed returns (22%), on average -0.34R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

BOS (break of structure)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder235.110

Head235.090

Structural level235.840

Sweep size0.02000 (0.06 ATR)

Break strength0.4200 (1.21 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head11

Candles head → break4

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML57%

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 51% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Sellers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1hBearish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

05.10 10:15Liquidity formed: local low 235.1 (left shoulder)
05.10 11:30Structural high 235.8 confirmed
05.10 12:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
05.10 13:00Head 235.1 confirmed
05.10 13:30BOS: close above the structural high 235.8. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 235.1 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 235.1, which is 0.02000 (0.06 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 235.8 (close 236.3). This is a bullish BOS: a break of structure.

The left shoulder zone (235.1–235.3) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bullish order block overlaps QML by 57%: big players already built positions in this zone.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1h: bearish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (51% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bullish order block at QMLConfirmation

1h: structure is bearishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown