NEARUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for NEARUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockTap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone4.762 – 4.776

Stop (beyond the head)4.727

Target (2R)4.873

Structure break level4.824 · 1.0R

Next swing further out4.829

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

15m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 43 of 196 completed returns (22%), on average -0.34R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

5Confirmations

3Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder4.762

Head4.731

Structural level4.824

Sweep size0.03100 (0.95 ATR)

Break strength0.03400 (1.05 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head9

Candles head → break1

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML57%

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta against the breakAgainst

Aggressive buyers: 50% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1hBearish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

04.10 08:15Liquidity formed: local low 4.762 (left shoulder)
04.10 08:45Structural high 4.824 confirmed
04.10 10:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
04.10 10:30Head 4.731 confirmed
04.10 10:30CHoCH: close above the structural high 4.824. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 4.762 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 4.731, which is 0.03100 (0.95 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 4.824 (close 4.858). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (4.762–4.776) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bullish order block overlaps QML by 57%: big players already built positions in this zone.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1h: bearish (against this idea).

On the break candle the aggressive flow went against the break (50% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bullish order block at QMLConfirmation

1h: structure is bearishAgainst

Delta against the breakAgainst

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown