MUUSDT 1h · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:00 UTC · forecast for MUUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone1,093.72 – 1,096.76

Stop (beyond the head)1,115.99

Target (2R)1,049.17

Structure break level1,086.49 · 0.3R

Next swing further out1,080.72

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1h, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 28 of 109 completed returns (26%), on average -0.23R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1,096.76

Head1,114.71

Structural level1,086.49

Sweep size17.950 (1.36 ATR)

Break strength2.750 (0.21 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head9

Candles head → break5

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 52% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Buyer pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

4hBearish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

02.10 03:00Liquidity formed: local high 1,096.8 (left shoulder)
02.10 04:00Structural low 1,086.5 confirmed
02.10 08:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
02.10 12:00Head 1,114.7 confirmed
02.10 15:00CHoCH: close below the structural low 1086.5. Quasimodo confirmed
02.10 16:00Price is approaching QML

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 1,096.8 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1,114.7, which is 17.950 (1.36 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 1,086.5 (close 1,083.7). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1,093.7–1,096.8) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 4h: bearish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (52% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

4h: structure is bearishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown