MUUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for MUUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockImbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone1,079.99 – 1,081.15

Stop (beyond the head)1,081.66

Target (2R)1,076.65

Structure break level1,077.52 · 1.5R

Next swing further out1,077.49

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

15m, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 31 of 202 completed returns (15%), on average -0.54R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

7Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder1,081.15

Head1,081.45

Structural level1,077.52

Sweep size0.3000 (0.16 ATR)

Break strength1.960 (1.04 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break2

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

Bearish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML4%

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateUntouched

Overlap with QML7%

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 63% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Buyer pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1hBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

05.10 07:00Liquidity formed: local high 1,081.2 (left shoulder)
05.10 07:15Structural low 1,077.5 confirmed
05.10 07:45Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
05.10 08:30Head 1,081.5 confirmed
05.10 08:30CHoCH: close below the structural low 1077.5. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 1,081.2 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 1,081.5, which is 0.3000 (0.16 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 1,077.5 (close 1,075.6). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (1,080–1,081.2) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bearish order block overlaps QML by 4%: big players already built positions in this zone.

Untouched bearish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 7%.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1h: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (63% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bearish order block at QMLConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

1h: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown