MSTRUSDT 4h · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 16:00 UTC · forecast for MSTRUSDT

QML (entry zone)Imbalance (FVG)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone93.260 – 94.280

Stop (beyond the head)91.966

Target (2R)98.908

Structure break level97.770 · 1.5R

Next swing further out97.960

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

4h, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 12 of 68 completed returns (18%), on average -0.47R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

5Confirmations

3Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder93.260

Head92.190

Structural level97.770

Sweep size1.070 (0.79 ATR)

Break strength7.920 (5.85 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head10

Candles head → break2

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

FVG in the QML zone✅

StateUntouched

Overlap with QML81%

Order flow

Delta against the breakAgainst

Aggressive buyers: 48% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1dBearish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

18.08 00:00Liquidity formed: local low 93.260 (left shoulder)
19.08 00:00Structural high 97.770 confirmed
19.08 04:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
19.08 16:00Head 92.190 confirmed
19.08 16:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 97.770. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 93.260 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 92.190, which is 1.070 (0.79 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 97.770 (close 105.7). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (93.260–94.280) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Untouched bullish imbalance (FVG) overlaps QML by 81%.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1d: bearish (against this idea).

On the break candle the aggressive flow went against the break (48% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Imbalance (FVG) in the QML zoneConfirmation

1d: structure is bearishAgainst

Delta against the breakAgainst

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown