HYPEUSDT 15m · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:30 UTC · forecast for HYPEUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockTap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone93.646 – 93.692

Stop (beyond the head)93.972

Target (2R)92.995

Structure break level93.177 · 1.4R

Next swing further out93.166

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

15m, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 31 of 202 completed returns (15%), on average -0.54R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

8Confirmations

0Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder93.692

Head93.932

Structural level93.177

Sweep size0.2400 (0.64 ATR)

Break strength0.2860 (0.77 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break5

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

Bearish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML96%

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 58% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Buyers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1hBearish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 11:15Liquidity formed: local high 93.692 (left shoulder)
06.10 11:45Structural low 93.177 confirmed
06.10 12:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 12:30Head 93.932 confirmed
06.10 13:15CHoCH: close below the structural low 93.177. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 93.692 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 93.932, which is 0.2400 (0.64 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 93.177 (close 92.891). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (93.646–93.692) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bearish order block overlaps QML by 96%: big players already built positions in this zone.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1h: bearish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (58% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bearish order block at QMLConfirmation

1h: structure is bearishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown