DOGEUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · long

CANCELLEDClosed · updated 06.10 16:30 UTC · forecast for DOGEUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone0.09532 – 0.09537

Stop (beyond the head)0.09515

Target (2R)0.09581

Structure break level0.09565 · 1.3R

Next swing further out0.09568

StatusStop hit

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 25 of 108 completed returns (23%), on average -0.31R.

All markets: 21% of 1078, on average -0.38R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longCANCELLED

4Confirmations

3Against

1Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML already touchedtouched

Left shoulder0.09532

Head0.09517

Structural level0.09565

Sweep size0.0001500 (0.96 ATR)

Break strength0.0003100 (1.98 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break4

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows—

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive buyers: 64% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Touch candle volume 2.8× the average; aggressive sellers: yes; bounce (close in the upper part of the candle): no

Footprint (from trades)No data

No trade data for the touch candle (the footprint is collected only live)

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBearish structure ⚠

1hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 13:00Liquidity formed: local low 0.09532 (left shoulder)
06.10 13:05Structural high 0.09565 confirmed
06.10 13:10Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 13:25Head 0.09517 confirmed
06.10 13:35CHoCH: close above the structural high 0.09565. Quasimodo confirmed
06.10 14:25Price is approaching QML
06.10 15:55Price is approaching QML
06.10 16:00Price entered the QML zone
06.10 16:30Idea cancelled: Close below the head (0.09517)

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 0.09532 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 0.09517, which is 0.0001500 (0.96 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 0.09565 (close 0.09596). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (0.09532–0.09537) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

Structure on 15m: bearish (against this idea).

Structure on 1h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle aggressive buyers dominated (64% of volume).

There was no absorption on the candle that returned to QML.

Result: the idea was cancelled.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

15m: structure is bearishAgainst

1h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Footprint (from trades)Unknown