DOGEUSDT 4h · Quasimodo · short

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 16:00 UTC · forecast for DOGEUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone0.09863 – 0.09868

Stop (beyond the head)0.09916

Target (2R)0.09758

Structure break level0.09524 · 6.5R

Next swing further out0.09522

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

4h, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 18 of 83 completed returns (22%), on average -0.35R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

1Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder0.09868

Head0.09892

Structural level0.09524

Sweep size0.0002400 (0.10 ATR)

Break strength0.001220 (0.49 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head6

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine✅

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 56% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Buyers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

1dBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

27.09 00:00Liquidity formed: local high 0.09868 (left shoulder)
27.09 08:00Structural low 0.09524 confirmed
27.09 16:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
28.09 00:00Head 0.09892 confirmed
28.09 04:00CHoCH: close below the structural low 0.09524. Quasimodo confirmed

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 0.09868 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 0.09892, which is 0.0002400 (0.10 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 0.09524 (close 0.09402). This is a bearish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (0.09863–0.09868) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 1d: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (56% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

1d: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown