DOGEUSDT 1h · Quasimodo · long

WAITING FOR A RETURN TO QMLOpen · updated 06.10 19:00 UTC · forecast for DOGEUSDT

QML (entry zone)Order blockTap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · LONG from QML

Entry zone0.09265 – 0.09289

Stop (beyond the head)0.09242

Target (2R)0.09384

Structure break level0.09312 · 0.5R

Next swing further out0.09314

StatusWaiting for price to return to the QML zone

History of this pattern on Binance data

1h, long: reached the 2R target before the stop in 27 of 95 completed returns (28%), on average -0.15R.

All markets: 21% of 1051, on average -0.37R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · longWAITING FOR A RETURN TO QML

6Confirmations

2Against

2Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

CHoCH (change of character)✅

QML not touched✅

Left shoulder0.09265

Head0.09246

Structural level0.09312

Sweep size0.0001900 (0.37 ATR)

Break strength0.0003000 (0.58 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head5

Candles head → break4

Liquidity

Previous low taken✅

Equal lows✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

Bullish order block at QML✅

StateFresh

Touches0

Overlap with QML17%

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta against the breakAgainst

Aggressive buyers: 48% of the break candle volume

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Seller pressure at the head did not weaken

Absorption at QMLNo data

Waiting for a return to QML

Footprint (from trades)No data

QML not touched yet

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

4hBullish structure

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

04.10 01:00Liquidity formed: local low 0.09265 (left shoulder)
04.10 03:00Structural high 0.09312 confirmed
04.10 04:00Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
04.10 06:00Head 0.09246 confirmed
04.10 08:00CHoCH: close above the structural high 0.09312. Quasimodo confirmed
04.10 09:00Price is approaching QML

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local low 0.09265 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up below it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 0.09246, which is 0.0001900 (0.37 ATR) below the left shoulder.

Then price closed above the previous structural high 0.09312 (close 0.09342). This is a bullish CHoCH: a change of market character.

The left shoulder zone (0.09265–0.09289) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

A fresh bullish order block overlaps QML by 17%: big players already built positions in this zone.

There were equal lows nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 4h: bullish (supports the idea).

On the break candle the aggressive flow went against the break (48% of volume).

Now: waiting for price to return to QML.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal lowsConfirmation

Change of character (CHoCH)Confirmation

QML not touched yetConfirmation

Fresh bullish order block at QMLConfirmation

4h: structure is bullishConfirmation

Delta against the breakAgainst

CVD confirmed the headAgainst

Absorption at QMLUnknown

Footprint (from trades)Unknown