BNBUSDT 5m · Quasimodo · short

PLAYED OUTClosed · updated 06.10 16:00 UTC · forecast for BNBUSDT

QML (entry zone)Tap the markers for explanations · time in UTC · delta and CVD below

Scenario · SHORT from QML

Entry zone786.590 – 786.780

Stop (beyond the head)786.883

Target (2R)786.003

Structure break level784.650 · 6.6R

Next swing further out784.590

StatusStop hit

History of this pattern on Binance data

5m, short: reached the 2R target before the stop in 22 of 123 completed returns (18%), on average -0.46R.

All markets: 21% of 1078, on average -0.38R. Breaking even at 2R needs 33%.

The scenario is built from the setup's own levels and is not a forecast. History is a simulation on closed candles (without fees; if a candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts). It is the base frequency of the pattern, not the probability for a specific trade.

Setup

Quasimodo · shortPLAYED OUT

5Confirmations

2Against

1Unknown

Structure

Liquidity taken✅

BOS (break of structure)✅

QML already touchedtouched

Left shoulder786.780

Head786.790

Structural level784.650

Sweep size0.01000 (0.01 ATR)

Break strength0.07000 (0.09 ATR)

Candles shoulder → head11

Candles head → break3

Liquidity

Previous high taken✅

Equal highs✅

The sweep was confirmed by a second engine—

Order block

No order block at QML—

Imbalance (FVG)

No FVG at QML—

Order flow

Delta confirms the breakFor

Aggressive sellers: 70% of the break candle volume

CVD divergence at the headFor

Buyers were weaker on the push than at the left shoulder

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Touch candle volume 1.7× the average; aggressive buyers: yes; bounce (close in the lower part of the candle): no

Footprint (from trades)No data

No trade data for the touch candle (the footprint is collected only live)

Delta, CVD and absorption are computed from the aggressive buy volume in each candle (an approximation). A trade-level footprint exists only for candles we collected live.

Higher timeframe

15mBearish structure

1hBullish structure ⚠

Background only, it does not affect the setup itself.

Timeline

06.10 13:05Liquidity formed: local high 786.8 (left shoulder)
06.10 13:45Structural low 784.7 confirmed
06.10 13:50Price took out the liquidity beyond the left shoulder
06.10 14:00Head 786.8 confirmed
06.10 14:05BOS: close below the structural low 784.6. Quasimodo confirmed
06.10 14:55Price is approaching QML
06.10 15:00Price entered the QML zone
06.10 16:00Idea played out: After touching QML price closed below the structural level 784.6

Why this setup was found

First the market formed a local high 786.8 (left shoulder). Stop orders piled up above it, that is, liquidity.

Then price took that liquidity: the head reached 786.8, which is 0.01000 (0.01 ATR) above the left shoulder.

Then price closed below the previous structural low 784.7 (close 784.6). This is a bearish BOS: a break of structure.

The left shoulder zone (786.6–786.8) became the QML level: price often returns here before continuing the move.

There were equal highs nearby: they were what price hunted.

Structure on 15m: bearish (supports the idea).

Structure on 1h: bullish (against this idea).

On the break candle aggressive sellers dominated (70% of volume).

There was no absorption on the candle that returned to QML.

Result: the pattern played out and is closed for tracking.

This is a scenario built from market data, not a guarantee of the result.

Confirmations and contradictions

Liquidity takenConfirmation

Equal highsConfirmation

15m: structure is bearishConfirmation

1h: structure is bullishAgainst

Delta confirms the breakConfirmation

CVD divergence at the headConfirmation

No absorption at QMLAgainst

Footprint (from trades)Unknown